Record Hispanic Turnout Helped Elect Villaraigosa in LA Mayor's Race

Hispanic captures 84 percent of the Hispanic vote.  Model for Phx in 2007?

LOS ANGELES (By Michael R. Blood, AP) May 20, 2005 - Antonio Villaraigosa was elected mayor with a record 25 percent Hispanic turnout, but his decisive victory over Mayor James Hahn saw him claim significant support across a wide range of demographic and geographic groups, an exit poll found.

The Hispanic turnout, up from 22 percent in the 2001 mayoral election, was influenced by a swell of ethnic pride. When he is sworn in July 1, Villaraigosa will become the first Hispanic mayor since 1872.

But that only begins to explain his 17-point victory over Hahn. The mayor, who defeated Villaraigosa in the 2001 runoff, lost ground across a spectrum of voters compared to four years ago, weakened by an ethics scandal at City Hall and a low-key public image.

Even many of Hahn's supporters expressed reservations about the incumbent, according to a Los Angeles Times survey of voters leaving polling places. Nearly 60 percent of Hahn's supporters said they considered him the lesser of two evils.

Villaraigosa convincingly captured one of two crucial battlegrounds, the San Fernando Valley, reversing the outcome there from 2001, the poll found. In the other, South Los Angeles, a diverse area with a large black population, Hahn and Villaraigosa split the vote, a sharp contrast from 2001 when Hahn claimed a 2-1 advantage in the area.

Villaraigosa also captured a majority of the vote on the west side and in central Los Angeles.

"I said from the beginning our goal was to increase participation in every community. The fact that Latinos voted in the numbers that they did is a great thing," Villaraigosa said Thursday at a deli on the west side.

"The key to America is a strong democracy, and the only way to do that is through participation," he said.

Hahn's victory in 2001 was attributed to his strong support from blacks and right-tilting valley voters, two groups that deserted him in large numbers this year. Hahn won 80 percent of the black vote in 2001, but the candidates split the black vote on Tuesday.

Some analysts said that in a city with a history of black-Hispanic rivalries, Villaraigosa's ability to pair a large share of the black vote with his Hispanic support, white liberals and others marked a turning point in city politics, forging a new urban alliance.

But others cautioned not to draw too much from a single election.

"It's a beachhead that Villaraigosa made into the black community. It's going to be a real challenging test to make it something that is durable," said Raphael Sonenshein, a political scientist at California State University, Fullerton.

Overall, the mayor-elect had an edge with Hispanics, Democrats, liberals and younger voters. He captured 84 percent of the Hispanic vote.

By contrast, the poll of 3,191 voters found Hahn slipped even among his core supporters — Republicans, conservatives, Asian-Americans and the elderly.

The exit poll's margin of error was plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The victory by one Democrat over another came more than a decade after Hispanics became the biggest ethnic group in the city. Los Angeles is now 48 percent Hispanic, 31 percent white, 11 percent Asian and 10 percent black.

Sonenshein noted that Hahn was damaged by ongoing corruption probes at City Hall. Additionally, he alienated blacks by supporting the ouster of the city's black police chief in 2002, and turned off white San Fernando Valley voters by opposing the region's unsuccessful secession movement.