WASHINGTON (By Mark Murray, NBC News) October 13, 2005 — It has been weeks since Hurricane Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast; since gas prices began spiking to record highs; and since Cindy Sheehan, whose son was killed in Iraq, held her antiwar vigil outside President Bush’s Texas ranch. But, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, the fortunes of the Bush administration and the Republican Party have not yet begun to recover.

For the first time in the poll, Bush’s approval rating has sunk below 40 percent, while the percentage believing the country is heading in the right direction has dipped below 30 percent. In addition, a sizable plurality prefers a Democratic-controlled Congress, and just 29 percent think Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers is qualified to serve on the nation’s highest court.

"Any way you slice this data, I think these are just terrible sets of numbers," said Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

The poll shows that Bush’s approval rating stands at 39 percent, a new low for the president. In the last NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, which was released in mid-September, 40 percent approved of Bush’s job performance while 55 percent disapproved. In addition, just 28 percent believe the country is headed in the right direction, another all-time low in Bush’s presidency.

Strikingly, much has happened in the time between those two polls — many of them seemingly positive events for the White House. The president delivered a prime-time speech from New Orleans, in which he promised to rebuild the Gulf Coast. He also made several more visits to the region, to examine the damage caused by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Furthermore, he saw the Senate confirm John Roberts to the Supreme Court, and he nominated Miers, his White House counsel, to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor.

‘Huge question mark’ on Miers

The Miers nomination, however, has disappointed some of the president’s conservative supporters, because they say she lacks judicial experience and a clear conservative record on social issues. According to the poll, 29 percent say she’s qualified to serve on the Supreme Court, while 24 percent think she’s unqualified. Forty-six percent say they don’t know enough about her.

"There is nothing to suggest that people have turned on her," Hart said. "But there is just a huge question mark behind her at this stage. She has to establish her own bona fides."

The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points and which was conducted from Oct. 8-10 of 807 adults, also finds that strong majorities don’t believe that the recent charges against GOP leaders Tom DeLay of Texas and Bill Frist of Tennessee are politically motivated. Sixty-five percent say that DeLay’s indictment on charges of illegally using corporate contributions for political campaigns suggests potential illegal activity, while 24 percent say the indictment is politics as usual and has little merit. (Since his indictment, DeLay stepped down from his leadership position but still plays a prominent role in the U.S. House of Representatives.)

Meanwhile, 57 percent say Frist’s sale of stock in a company his family runs — just before the value of the stock declined — indicates potential illegal activity, compared with 28 percent who say the charge has little merit.

48 percent want Democratic-controlled Congress

In addition, with 13 months until the 2006 congressional elections, 48 percent say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, compared with 39 percent who want the Republicans to control Capitol Hill. In fact, that nine-point difference is the largest margin between the parties in the 11 years the NBC/Journal poll has been tracking this question.

But Hart argues that Democrats aren’t necessarily responsible for this margin. "It is not that Democrats have done so well," he said. "It is that people are disgusted." McInturff puts it this way: "People are very turned off and unhappy with the state of play in American politics."

People also seem to be turned off and unhappy with high gas prices. According to the survey, 69 percent believe the worst is still to come with energy and fuel prices. Just 25 percent think the worst is behind us.

Because of this generally sour attitude, the NBC/Journal pollsters doubt that Bush will be able to climb out of his standing anytime soon. "His trampoline [is] made of cement," Hart said.

And while McInturff thinks that Bush’s approval rating actually may actually hover between 40 and 45 percent, he says that’s still problematic terrain from which to govern. "It is a very difficult place to be."

Evangelicals, Republican women, Southerners and other critical groups in President Bush’s political coalition are increasingly worried about the direction the nation is headed and disappointed with his performance, an AP-Ipsos poll found.

The growing unease could be a troubling sign for a White House already struggling to keep the Republican Party base from slipping over Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers, Gulf Coast spending projects, immigration and other issues.

“Politically, this is very serious for the president,” said James Thurber, a political scientist at American University. “If the base of his party has lost faith, that could spell trouble for his policy agenda and for the party generally.”

Public sentiment about the nation’s direction has sunk to new depths at a time people are anxious about Iraq, the economy, gas prices and the management of billions of dollars being spent for recovery from the nation’s worst natural disaster.

Only 28 percent say the country is headed in the right direction while two-thirds, 66 percent, say it is on the wrong track, the poll found.

Those most likely to have lost confidence about the nation’s direction over the past year include white evangelicals, down 30 percentage points, Republican women, 28 points, Southerners, 26 points, and suburban men, 20 points.

Lowest approval rating of his presidency

Bush’s supporters are uneasy about issues including federal deficits, immigration and his latest nomination for the Supreme Court. Social conservatives are concerned about his choice of Miers, a relatively unknown lawyer who has most recently served as White House counsel.

“Bush is trying to get more support generally from the American public by seeming more moderate and showing he’s a strong leader at the same time he has a rebellion within his own party,” Thurber said. “The far right is starting to be very open about their claim that he’s not a real conservative.”

The president’s job approval is mired at the lowest level of his presidency — 39 percent. While four of five Republicans say they approve of Bush’s job performance — enthusiasm in that support has dipped over the last year.

Almost two-thirds of Republicans strongly approved of the job done by Bush in December 2004, soon after his re-election. The AP-Ipsos survey found that just half in his own party feel that way now.

The intensity of support for Bush’s job performance has also dropped sharply among white evangelicals, Southerners, people from rural areas and suburban men.

“We’ve lost focus on where we’re supposed to be going and not able to respond to the crises that affect the people of this country,” said David Ernest, a Republican from San Ramon, Calif., who is angry about the government’s response to Hurricane Katrina. “We’re mired in a Middle Eastern adventure and we’ve taken the focus off of our own country.”

Seen as having a political agenda

Bush has tried to reassure conservatives about his Supreme Court nominee. He’s also trying to counter critics of the war by tying U.S. efforts in Iraq to the larger war against terrorism. And he’s made frequent trips to the areas devastated by hurricanes Katrina and Rita to offset criticism of the government’s initial response to Katrina.

Even those efforts get viewed with suspicion by some.

“I just think the president is doing things for political reasons, not what’s right for the people,” said Traci Wallace, a Democrat from Tallahassee, Fla. “Every time he makes a trip to the hurricane zone, he’s blowing a million dollars.”

Of all the problems facing the country, the continuing war in Iraq is the one that troubles some Bush supporters the most.

“I approve of what the president is doing, but it’s a mixed decision,” said Richard Saulinski, a Republican from Orland Park, Ill. “We should get out of Iraq. It seems like there’s no light at the end of the tunnel. I just think we’re dealing with a culture we don’t really understand.”