HARTFORD, Conn. (By Dan Balz, Washington Post) August 3, 2006 — Democratic challenger Ned Lamont, riding strong opposition to the war in Iraq, has surged into the lead over Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman (D-Conn.) in Tuesday's Senate primary, according to a newly released Quinnipiac University poll.

Lamont leads Lieberman 54 percent to 41 percent in a poll and now has clear momentum over the three-term incumbent and former Democratic vice presidential nominee. The findings represent a clear setback for Lieberman, who has claimed this week that a July 24 visit by former President Bill Clinton had turned around his campaign.

Lieberman has been sliding throughout the summer as Lamont's candidacy has picked up energy and support. In June, the Quinnipiac poll showed Lieberman leading 55 percent to 40 percent. Shortly before Clinton's visit, the poll found Lamont edging into the lead, 51 percent to 47 percent.

Lieberman has only a handful of days to reverse the trends if he hopes to salvage the Democratic nomination and avoid an embarrassing defeat. He has said he plans to run as an independent if he loses to Lamont on Tuesday, but a landslide rejection by members of his own party could complicate his hopes of running a successful third-party candidacy.

The two candidates appeared briefly together on Wednesday a rally denouncing the giant retailer Wal-Mart, but in all other ways they have been on separate and significantly different tracks this week.

Lieberman has been rolling through the state on his green campaign bus, dubbed "Joe's Tomorrow Tour," stopping at senior citizen centers, diners, restaurants, markets, construction sites and retail outlets. But he has been met by small crowds and minimal enthusiasm, save for some of his old friends in organized labor and among local elected officials.

Lamont comes to his events in a hybrid SUV and has won repeated applause from his supporters whenever he attacks Lieberman for supporting the Iraq war and for failing to stand up to President Bush.

On Wednesday, Lamont campaigned in African American churches in Bridgeport and New Haven with Jesse L. Jackson and Al Sharpton. The two African American ministers and politicians urged Connecticut voters to send a message to Bush and the nation on Tuesday.

The Quinnipiac poll painted a gloomy picture for Lieberman's campaign team. Lamont led among virtually every category of voter, except those with incomes below $30,000, where Lieberman led 49-46 percent.

Lamont held a commanding lead among college educated Democrats (57 percent to 39 percent) but also leads among those without a college degree (51 percent to 43 percent.) Lieberman had hoped to rally support among blue collar and working-class Democrats, but the poll suggests Lamont has broken through among those voters as well.

Among self-identified liberals, Lamont leads 66 percent to 31 percent. Lieberman holds a narrow lead among self-identified moderates, 49 percent to 45 percent.

Lamont has built his lead almost entirely on dissatisfaction with Lieberman, according to the poll. Among his supporters, 65 percent said their vote was more against Lieberman than for Lamont.

The poll showed that the once-popular Lieberman has lost considerable appeal to his party's rank-and-file. Just 37 percent of those surveyed said they had a favorable impression of Lieberman, while 34 percent said they viewed him unfavorably. Ironically, those findings were marginally better for Lieberman than Quinnipiac's previous poll.

Lamont is viewed favorably by 46 percent of those surveyed, compared with 14 percent who view him unfavorably. That represents a 10-point jump in favorability since a July 20 poll.