Bush and the Gay Debate

WASHINGTON (Newsweek) August 7, 2004 - Until recently, the Bush administration policy on gays has remained closeted. Bush, like most Americans, has gay people in his life; in fact, several of his closest advisors have gay family members. But, as is the case with many people, he hasn't wanted to discuss it. Call it the "don't talk, don't act" policy.

But recent court cases in which gay issues have been hotly contested--and a reporter's question at last week's press conference--have forced the president to address one of the most thorny issues of all: gay marriage. Some polls suggest that many Americans think matrimony between same-sex partners takes gay rights a step too far. Though other polls, including an NBC News poll, suggest that more than 50 percent of Americans support gay civil unions when the word "marriage" is not used.

Still, no one should have been surprised that the president came out against gay marriage. He signed a bill banning it in Texas. He's been saying since his 2000 campaign that "marriage is between and a man and a woman." What took gay Republicans by surprise was that Bush went an extra step, saying that White House lawyers were looking into "codifying" marriage for heterosexuals only.

Gay marriage may become such a divisive issue that the 2004 Republican convention this September could look something like the 1992 convention, during which some delegates held signs that read NO QUEERS. Democrat-leaning gay groups may even picket the New York event. "If a vicious, mean-spirited anti-gay campaign is in anyway connected to the Republican Party, then all bets are off," says David Smith, communications director and senior strategist for the Human Rights Campaign, a gay bipartisan political organization.

Gays and lesbians are already upset over Bush's use of the word "sinners" in his press conference last week. But, as is often the case, the president's words need a little parsing. Bush's comment about sinners was vague enough that one of his top aides went running after him to double check his intended meaning. The president was taken aback that anyone would think he was labeling gays sinners. His point, he told the aide, was that we are all sinners and only God can judge. His message was more for the religious right. That's why he paraphrased one of his favorite Bible verses from Matthew 7:3-5: "I caution those who may try to take the speck out of their neighbor's eye when they['ve] got a log in their own."

As for codifying marriage, neither is Bush about to quickly offer up a constitutional amendment on gay marriage nor is he certain to support groups pushing for such an amendment. White House lawyers are watching state court cases closely. The Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court will hand down a ruling any day now on whether same-sex marriage should be made legal in that state. If that ruling does nothing to challenge the Defense of Marriage Act, a 1996 law passed by President Bill Clinton that makes gay marriage a state-by-state rather than a federal issue, then Bush will probably do nothing. One possible outcome is that the court will punt the question to the Massachusetts legislature, which is what happened in Vermont. That means Bush could conceivably ignore the issue for at least another year.

But now that he's dipped his foot in the brewing culture war, "don't talk, don't act" may no longer be enough for social conservatives. "The president has to take leadership on these moral issues," explains Sandy Rios, head of Concerned Women for America, which has been a vocal opponent of what conservatives call the "gay agenda." "I think Republicans have neglected these moral issues to forge this so-called Big Tent. God willing they've awakened."

That's what worries Patrick Guerriero, executive director of the Log Cabin Republicans (LCR), a gay Republican group. "The president has been so disciplined in staying away from throwing a match in the culture war," Guerriero says. "We hope cooler heads prevail." If the party descends into a debate over gay issues, he says that more important issues like national security and the economy will get sidetracked. While LCR is not the type of group to boycott the Republican convention, Guerriero warns that "the spigot would close" if Bush makes gay marriage an issue.

That's a bit of an idle threat. Even though LCR chapters have raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for Bush (and the Republican Unity Coalition, which is run by the brother of one of Bush's biggest fund-raisers, has given $50,000 to both the congressional and Senate re-election coffers), that's not much in a war chest of a couple hundred million. But, Guerriero says, "We stand with mainstream American swing voters." If the party looks intolerant on gay issues, socially moderate Republicans may be scared off--not to mention gay Republicans themselves. "I'm more concerned about the votes than the money. We got a million [gay] votes in 2000," says Charles Francis, founder of the RUC, a group he created to advocate taking gay issues out of the Republican platform.

Guerriero points to another cautionary tale from 1992. During the Republican primaries, Sen. Bob Dole returned a check from Log Cabin Republicans. The strategy backfired. "It made him look mean," a former Dole staffer once explained. Still, Rios argues that Bush would be better off looking mean and moral. "If he came down on the wrong side, we just wouldn't vote at all," Rios says. Another idle threat? Karl Rove, Bush's political strategist who has long wooed the right, doesn't want to wait around to find out. If the Massachusetts court rules for gay marriage, Rove will likely encourage Bush to go into battle in the brewing culture war.